
Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines are on course for a record in 2026, the fourth consecutive annual increase. A survey of nine analysts and two traders projects total 2026 imports of 20–25 million tonnes, which implies growth of 30.5%–63.1% on the previous year. Official data show imports in January–August 2026 rose 65.8% year on year to 13.52 million tonnes.
The driver is domestic policy. Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, sharply reduced its nickel ore production quota this year to curb oversupply and support prices, leaving local smelters to look for ore elsewhere. Mysteel analyst Tom Fan described the lower mining quota as the primary driver of rising imports.
On the futures market, news on 21 October of possible output cuts for Indonesian nickel products lifted SHFE nickel and stainless steel (SS) futures. The most-traded SS contract closed the midday session at 13,635 yuan/t. Some traders raised spot quotes slightly, although transactions remained constrained by demand.
LME 3-month nickel closed at $15,250/t on 15 October, down $450/t, or about 2.9%, on the week, while SHFE nickel 2611 closed at 115,040 yuan/t. Separately, the International Nickel Study Group now forecasts a 2026 nickel surplus of 19,000 t, compared with a 32,000 t deficit forecast in April. The revision points to ample nickel supply and a cost floor for 304/316 stainless pipe, strip and plate pricing.
Source: Reuters via Mining.com.au
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