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Global stainless steel production is expected to pass 70 million mt in 2027, according to the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR), whose Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee met on October 26, 2026, during its World Convention in Malaga, Spain. Demand is forecast to grow 3.8% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, and the stainless market was described as expanding by about 5% a year, faster than copper and aluminum.
Production has shifted sharply toward Asia. China and Indonesia accounted for 3% of world output in 2000, while their combined share, including Chinese-controlled plants in Indonesia, reached 72% in 2026. Europe's share dropped from 40% to 9% over the same period.
Overcapacity remains a concern. Planned expansions in China, Indonesia and India could add about 15 million mt of capacity by 2031, compared with less than 10 million mt of additional demand in those markets.
On the raw material side, the average recycled content of stainless steel worldwide is about 30% and declining, including in China and Indonesia. India is the largest importer of recycled stainless materials, sourcing mainly from the US, the EU and South Korea. The EU's updated Waste Shipment Regulation restricts exports of recovered materials to non-OECD countries.
Scrap markets were described as relatively stable in 2026. Conditions in the EU improved after the introduction of CBAM and safeguard measures, although high energy costs and weak demand could limit the recovery into early 2027. China's stainless melting production rose 7.1% in the first half of the year.
Source: SteelOrbis
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